Market comparison
NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion
2 venues · 56 outcome rows · 36 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗36 outcomes · $5.5M reported volume
Observed 43s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 15, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗57 outcomes · $69K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
- Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
AJ Allmendinger Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Alex Bowman Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Austin Cindric Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Austin Dillon Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Brad Keselowski Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Bubba Wallace Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Carson Hocevar Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.2 pp | ||
Chase Briscoe Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
Chase Elliott Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
Chris Buescher Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Christopher Bell Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.1 pp | ||
Cody Ware Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Cole Custer Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Connor Zilisch Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Daniel Suarez Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Denny Hamlin Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Erik Jones Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Joey Logano Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.0 pp | ||
John Hunter Nemechek Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Josh Berry Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Kyle Busch Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Kyle Larson Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.9 pp | ||
Michael McDowell Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Noah Gragson Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Riley Herbst Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Ross Chastain Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Ryan Blaney Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
Ryan Preece Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
Shane Van Gisbergen Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Todd Gilliland Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Ty Dillon Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Ty Gibbs Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
Tyler Reddick Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
William Byron Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Zane Smith Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.0 pp | ||
Driver A Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver B Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver C Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver D Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver E Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver G Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver H Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver I Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver J Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver K Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver L Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver M Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver N Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver O Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver P Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver Q Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver R Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver S Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Driver T Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
AJ Allmendinger
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Alex Bowman
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Austin Cindric
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Austin Dillon
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Brad Keselowski
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Bubba Wallace
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Carson Hocevar
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.2 pp
Chase Briscoe
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Chase Elliott
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
Chris Buescher
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Christopher Bell
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.1 pp
Cody Ware
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Cole Custer
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Connor Zilisch
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Daniel Suarez
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Denny Hamlin
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Erik Jones
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Joey Logano
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.0 pp
John Hunter Nemechek
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Josh Berry
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Kyle Busch
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Kyle Larson
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.9 pp
Michael McDowell
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Noah Gragson
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Riley Herbst
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Ross Chastain
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Ryan Blaney
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
Ryan Preece
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
Shane Van Gisbergen
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Todd Gilliland
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Ty Dillon
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Ty Gibbs
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.4 pp
Tyler Reddick
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
William Byron
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Zane Smith
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Driver A
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver B
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver C
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver D
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver E
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver G
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver H
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver I
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver J
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver K
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver L
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver M
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver N
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver O
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver P
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver Q
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver R
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver S
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Driver T
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.