Market comparison

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

36 outcomes · $716K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Observed 2m ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 28, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $34K reported volume

Observed 7m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 29, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
0.0% or Below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.9% 0.0% or Below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
0.1% to 0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.7% 0.1% to 0.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
0.6% to 1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.5% 0.6% to 1.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
1.1% to 1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.6% 1.1% to 1.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
1.6% to 2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.1% Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0% 1.6% to 2.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
2.1% to 2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.1% Bid 50.1% · Ask 64.9% 2.1% to 2.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
2.6% to 3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.6% Bid 12.2% · Ask 14.6% 2.6% to 3.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
3.1% to 3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.8% 3.1% to 3.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
3.6% to 4.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 3.6% to 4.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.1% to 4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.9% 4.1% to 4.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
4.6% to 5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4% 4.6% to 5.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.1% to 5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4% 5.1% to 5.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
5.6% to 6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% 5.6% to 6.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6.1% or Above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4% 6.1% or Above Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 0.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 97.5% Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.5% Open Kalshi ↗ 97.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 1.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 96.5% Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 1.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0% Above 1.5% Open Kalshi ↗ 96.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 1.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 2.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 96.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 2.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% Above 2.5% Open Kalshi ↗ 95.5% Bid 92.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 2.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0% Above 3.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 95.5% Bid 92.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 3.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Above 3.5% Open Kalshi ↗ 95.0% Bid 91.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 3.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 4.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 95.0% Bid 91.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 5.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 89.0% Above 5.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	47.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 57.0% Above 6.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 2.2% · Ask 3.4% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

0.0% or Below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.9%

0.0% or Below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

0.1% to 0.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.7%

0.1% to 0.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

0.6% to 1.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.5%

0.6% to 1.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

1.1% to 1.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.1%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 4.6%

1.1% to 1.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

1.6% to 2.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.1%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0%

1.6% to 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

2.1% to 2.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.1%

Bid 50.1% · Ask 64.9%

2.1% to 2.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

2.6% to 3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.6%

Bid 12.2% · Ask 14.6%

2.6% to 3.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

3.1% to 3.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.8%

3.1% to 3.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

3.6% to 4.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

3.6% to 4.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.1% to 4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.9%

4.1% to 4.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

4.6% to 5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4%

4.6% to 5.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.1% to 5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4%

5.1% to 5.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

5.6% to 6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

5.6% to 6.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6.1% or Above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4%

6.1% or Above

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 0.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

97.5%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 0.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

97.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 1.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

96.5%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 1.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0%

Above 1.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

96.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 1.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 91.0%

Above 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

96.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Above 2.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

95.5%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 2.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0%

Above 3.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

95.5%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 3.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Above 3.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

95.0%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 3.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 4.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

95.0%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 5.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 89.0%

Above 5.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

47.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 57.0%

Above 6.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 3.4%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets