Market comparison

Nevada's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $16K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Nevada's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 4.2% · Ask 9.8% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 15.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.5% Bid 11.2% · Ask 15.7% Democrat 25%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Horsford, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.5% Bid 90.0% · Ask 97.7% Horsford, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.5% Horsford, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 88.0% Horsford, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 77.0% Horsford, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 64.0% Horsford, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 49.0% Horsford, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Horsford, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 24.0% Horsford, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Horsford, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0% Horsford, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 5%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 3.3% Republican 5%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 9.8%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.5%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 15.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 11.2% · Ask 15.7%

Democrat 25%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Horsford, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.5%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 97.7%

Horsford, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.5%

Horsford, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 88.0%

Horsford, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 77.0%

Horsford, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 64.0%

Horsford, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 49.0%

Horsford, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Horsford, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 24.0%

Horsford, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Horsford, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0%

Horsford, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 5%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 3.3%

Republican 5%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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