Market comparison

New York's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $21K reported volume

Observed 7s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 7s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for New York's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.9% Bid 4.9% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 34.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 38.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 25.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 6.8% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.9% Democrat 30%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Gillen, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.8% Gillen, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	75.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 84.0% Gillen, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0% Gillen, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 56.0% Gillen, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 43.0% Gillen, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0% Gillen, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.9% Bid 9.8% · Ask 20.0% Gillen, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gillen, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.8% Bid 2.7% · Ask 13.0% Gillen, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.2% Bid 8.1% · Ask 8.2% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.9%

Bid 4.9% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 34.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 38.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 25.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 6.8%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.9%

Democrat 30%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Gillen, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.8%

Gillen, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

75.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 84.0%

Gillen, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

71.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0%

Gillen, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 56.0%

Gillen, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 43.0%

Gillen, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0%

Gillen, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.9%

Bid 9.8% · Ask 20.0%

Gillen, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gillen, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.8%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 13.0%

Gillen, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.2%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 8.2%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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