Market comparison

New Zealand general election winner?

2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

33 outcomes · $94K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for New Zealand general election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Te Pati Maori Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Te Pāti Māori Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0% Te Pāti Māori Open Kalshi ↗	4.9 pp
ACT New Zealand Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ACT New Zealand Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
ACT New Zealand Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0% ACT Open Kalshi ↗	—
Green Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Green Party Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Green Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.6% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0% Green Open Kalshi ↗	—
Labour Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 49.0% Labour Party Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Labour Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 51.0% Labour Open Kalshi ↗	—
National Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	54.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 57.0% National Party Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
National Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 58.0% National Open Kalshi ↗	—
New Zealand First Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% New Zealand First Party Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
New Zealand First Party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.6% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0% NZ First Open Kalshi ↗	—
Opportunity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Opportunity Open Kalshi ↗	—

Te Pati Maori

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Te Pāti Māori

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

Te Pāti Māori

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.9 pp

ACT New Zealand

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

ACT New Zealand

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

ACT New Zealand

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

ACT

Open Kalshi ↗

Green Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Green Party

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Green Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

Green

Open Kalshi ↗

Labour Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

44.5%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 49.0%

Labour Party

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Labour Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 51.0%

Labour

Open Kalshi ↗

National Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 57.0%

National Party

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

National Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 58.0%

National

Open Kalshi ↗

New Zealand First Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

New Zealand First Party

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

New Zealand First Party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

NZ First

Open Kalshi ↗

Opportunity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Opportunity

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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