The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

2 venues · 44 outcome rows · 16 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

58 outcomes · $196K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Observed 1m ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

33 outcomes · $71K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Amir Ohana

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Amir Ohana

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Amir Ohana

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.0%

Amir Ohana

Open Polymarket ↗

Avi Dichter

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Avi Dichter

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Avi Dichter

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Bezalel Smotrich

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Bezalel Smotrich

Open Kalshi ↗

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0%

Bezalel Smotrich

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3%

Bezalel Smotrich

Open Polymarket ↗

Elazar Stern

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Elazar Stern

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.8%

Elazar Stern

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Eli Cohen

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Eli Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Eli Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Eli Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Eli Cohen

Open Polymarket ↗

Gideon Sa'ar

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Gideon Sa'ar

Open Kalshi ↗

12.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0%

Gideon Sa'ar

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Gideon Sa’ar

Open Polymarket ↗

Itamar Ben Gvir

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 18.0%

Itamar Ben-Gvir

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

Itamar Ben Gvir

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.0 pp

Matan Kahana

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Matan Kahana

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 9.0%

Matan Kahana

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.3 pp

Meirav Ben-Ari

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Meirav Ben-Ari

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Meirav Ben-Ari

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Ofer Winter

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Ofer Winter

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Ofer Winter

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Ram Ben-Barak

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Ram Ben-Barak

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Ram Ben-Barak

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Talya Lankri

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Talya Lankri

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.1%

Talya Lankri

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Yair Golan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yair Golan

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Yair Golan

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yair Golan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 8.3%

Yair Golan

Open Polymarket ↗

Yoaz Hendel

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Yoaz Hendel

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Yoaz Hendel

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Yoram Cohen

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 16.0%

Yoram Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yoram Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Yoram Cohen

Open Polymarket ↗

Yoram Cohen

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Yossi Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yossi Cohen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

Yossi Cohen

Open Polymarket ↗

Amichai Eliyahu

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Amichai Eliyahu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Aryeh Deri

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Aryeh Deri

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Avigdor Lieberman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

Avigdor Lieberman

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

Avigdor Lieberman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Benjamin Netanyahu

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Benny Gantz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Benny Gantz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Chili Tropper

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Chili Tropper

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Chili Tropper

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Chili Tropper

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Einat Wilf

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Einat Wilf

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gadi Eisenkot

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Gadi Eisenkot

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Gadi Eisenkot

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Haim Katz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Haim Katz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hamad Amar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Hamad Amar

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0%

Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)

Open Polymarket ↗

Israel Katz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Israel Katz

Open Kalshi ↗

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Israel Katz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Keren Terner Eyal

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Keren Terner Eyal

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Limor Son Har-Melech

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Limor Son Har-Melech

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Moshe Feiglin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Moshe Feiglin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Naama Lazimi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Naama Lazimi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Naftali Bennett

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Naftali Bennett

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

Naftali Bennett

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nir Barkat

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Nir Barkat

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

No Next Minister by Feb 28

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0%

No Next Minister by Feb 28

Open Polymarket ↗

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ron Dermer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Ron Dermer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shaul Meridor

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 15.0%

Shaul Meridor

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tally Gotliv

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Tally Gotliv

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yair Lapid

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yair Lapid

Open Kalshi ↗

26.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 26.0%

Yair Lapid

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yaron Zelekha

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yaron Zelekha

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yitzhak Wasserlauf

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yitzhak Wasserlauf

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yoav Segalovitz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Yoav Segalovitz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yoav Segalovitz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 7.4%

Yoav Segalovich

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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