Market comparison
Next Premier of Victoria
2 venues · 15 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗42 outcomes · $29K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 29, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $3K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
- Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
- If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Ben Carroll Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Danny O'Brien Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
Ellen Sandell Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.3 pp | ||
Jess Wilson Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Warren Pickering Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Brad Battin Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
David Southwick Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Emma Kealy Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gabrielle Williams Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Jacinta Allan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Jaclyn Symes Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
James Newbury Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Sam Groth Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Sonya Kilkenny Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Steve Dimopoulos Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Ben Carroll
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Danny O'Brien
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.1 pp
Ellen Sandell
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.3 pp
Jess Wilson
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
Warren Pickering
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.5 pp
Brad Battin
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
David Southwick
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Emma Kealy
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Gabrielle Williams
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Jacinta Allan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Jaclyn Symes
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
James Newbury
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Sam Groth
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Sonya Kilkenny
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Steve Dimopoulos
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.