The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

NHL Vezina Trophy

2 venues · 67 outcome rows · 37 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

40 outcomes · $36K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 7, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

70 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Adin Hill

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Adin Hill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Adin Hill

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.6 pp

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.3%

Bid 9.1% · Ask 17.5%

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.3 pp

Anthony Stolarz

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Anthony Stolarz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 34.0%

Anthony Stolarz

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.1 pp

Cam Talbot

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cam Talbot

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Cam Talbot

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.6 pp

Charlie Lindgren

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Charlie Lindgren

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

36.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 72.7%

Charlie Lindgren

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 35.9 pp

Connor Hellebuyck

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

Connor Hellebuyck

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

16.7%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 32.0%

Connor Hellebuyck

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 7.7 pp

Connor Ingram

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Connor Ingram

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Connor Ingram

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.6 pp

Darcy Kuemper

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Darcy Kuemper

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

12.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 25.0%

Darcy Kuemper

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.6 pp

Dustin Wolf

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Dustin Wolf

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 27.0%

Dustin Wolf

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 12.6 pp

Elvis Merzlikins

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Elvis Merzlikins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Elvis Merzlikins

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.6 pp

Filip Gustavsson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Filip Gustavsson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Filip Gustavsson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.1 pp

Frederik Andersen

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Frederik Andersen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 65.0%

Frederik Andersen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 30.6 pp

Igor Shesterkin

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Igor Shesterkin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 8.0%

Igor Shesterkin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Ilya Sorokin

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0%

Ilya Sorokin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 44.7%

Ilya Sorokin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 13.0 pp

Jacob Markstrom

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Jacob Markstrom

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.7%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 27.0%

Jacob Markstrom

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.7 pp

Jake Oettinger

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 24.0%

Jake Oettinger

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 58.0%

Jake Oettinger

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 8.0 pp

Jeremy Swayman

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 30.0%

Jeremy Swayman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.3%

Bid 7.2% · Ask 35.3%

Jeremy Swayman

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 8.8 pp

Jet Greaves

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Jet Greaves

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

18.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 36.0%

Jet Greaves

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.1 pp

Joey Daccord

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Joey Daccord

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

27.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 55.0%

Joey Daccord

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 25.6 pp

John Gibson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

John Gibson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

John Gibson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

Jordan Binnington

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Jordan Binnington

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 41.0%

Jordan Binnington

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 19.5 pp

Joseph Woll

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Joseph Woll

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 35.0%

Joseph Woll

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 17.0 pp

Juuse Saros

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Juuse Saros

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

31.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 63.0%

Juuse Saros

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 29.5 pp

Karel Vejmelka

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Karel Vejmelka

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

12.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 25.0%

Karel Vejmelka

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.5 pp

Kevin Lankinen

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kevin Lankinen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Kevin Lankinen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.6 pp

Linus Ullmark

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 21.0%

Linus Ullmark

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 42.0%

Linus Ullmark

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 12.5 pp

Logan Thompson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Logan Thompson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 39.0%

Logan Thompson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 14.0 pp

Lukas Dostal

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Lukas Dostal

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

23.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 46.0%

Lukas Dostal

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 21.1 pp

Mackenzie Blackwood

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Mackenzie Blackwood

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.1%

Mackenzie Blackwood

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Petr Mrazek

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Petr Mrazek

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 20.0%

Petr Mrazek

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.6 pp

Pyotr Kochetkov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Pyotr Kochetkov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 29.0%

Pyotr Kochetkov

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 13.5 pp

Sergei Bobrovsky

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Sergei Bobrovsky

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 64.0%

Sergei Bobrovsky

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 30.0 pp

Spencer Knight

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Spencer Knight

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

Spencer Knight

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Stuart Skinner

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 17.0%

Stuart Skinner

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

31.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 63.0%

Stuart Skinner

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 14.6 pp

Thatcher Demko

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Thatcher Demko

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 34.0%

Thatcher Demko

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.1 pp

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 34.0%

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.1 pp

Yaroslav Askarov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yaroslav Askarov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 26.0%

Yaroslav Askarov

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.1 pp

Akira Schmid

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Akira Schmid

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Alex Lyon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Alex Lyon

Open Polymarket ↗

Alex Nedeljkovic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Alex Nedeljkovic

Open Polymarket ↗

Alexandar Georgiev

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Alexandar Georgiev

Open Polymarket ↗

Anton Forsberg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Anton Forsberg

Open Polymarket ↗

Arturs Silovs

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Arturs Silovs

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Arvid Soderblom

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Arvid Soderblom

Open Polymarket ↗

Calvin Pickard

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Calvin Pickard

Open Polymarket ↗

Casey DeSmith

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.5%

Casey DeSmith

Open Polymarket ↗

Dan Vladar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 44.0%

Dan Vladar

Open Polymarket ↗

David Rittich

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

David Rittich

Open Polymarket ↗

Eric Comrie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Eric Comrie

Open Polymarket ↗

Ilya Samsonov

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Ilya Samsonov

Open Polymarket ↗

Ivan Fedotov

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Ivan Fedotov

Open Polymarket ↗

Jake Allen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 36.5%

Jake Allen

Open Polymarket ↗

Jakub Dobes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 43.0%

Jakub Dobes

Open Polymarket ↗

Jesper Wallstedt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 36.0%

Jesper Wallstedt

Open Polymarket ↗

Joel Hofer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 72.0%

Joel Hofer

Open Polymarket ↗

Jonas Johansson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Jonas Johansson

Open Polymarket ↗

Jonathan Quick

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Jonathan Quick

Open Polymarket ↗

Joonas Korpisalo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 10.0%

Joonas Korpisalo

Open Polymarket ↗

Justus Annunen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.0%

Justus Annunen

Open Polymarket ↗

Philipp Grubauer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 31.0%

Philipp Grubauer

Open Polymarket ↗

Samuel Ersson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.6%

Bid 9.1% · Ask 10.1%

Samuel Ersson

Open Polymarket ↗

Samuel Montembeault

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Samuel Montembeault

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Samuel Montembeault

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.6%

Sam Montembeault

Open Polymarket ↗

Scott Wedgewood

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 65.6%

Scott Wedgewood

Open Polymarket ↗

Semyon Varlamov

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.8%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 65.4%

Semyon Varlamov

Open Polymarket ↗

Tristan Jarry

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 53.6%

Tristan Jarry

Open Polymarket ↗

Vitek Vanecek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 45.0%

Vitek Vanecek

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.