Market comparison

Nigerian Senate election winner?

2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $8K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 17, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 28, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Nigerian Senate election winner?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
APC Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	80.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 81.0% APC Open Polymarket ↗	83.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 85.0% APC Open Kalshi ↗	3.0 pp
PDP Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	8.8% Bid 7.6% · Ask 10.0% PDP Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% PDP Open Kalshi ↗	2.2 pp
ADC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 1.7% · Ask 12.3% ADC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Labour Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.2% Labour Open Kalshi ↗	—
LP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% LP Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
NDC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.9% NDC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
NNPP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% NNPP Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

APC

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

80.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 81.0%

APC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 85.0%

APC

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

PDP

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

8.8%

Bid 7.6% · Ask 10.0%

PDP

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

PDP

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.2 pp

ADC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 12.3%

ADC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Labour

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.2%

Labour

Open Kalshi ↗

LP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

NDC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.9%

NDC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

NNPP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

NNPP

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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