The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $31K reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 29, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $18K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 16, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Kalshi 'hottest ever' equals Polymarket '1st hottest'; Polymarket counts a tie for first as first.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Hottest on record

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

96.2%

Bid 93.6% · Ask 98.8%

1st hottest

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Hottest ever

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 13.2 pp

2nd hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1%

2nd hottest

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

3rd hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 4.0%

3rd hottest

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4th or lower

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

4th or lower

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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