Market comparison

OpenAI market share this week

2 venues · 23 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $131K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

45 outcomes · $57K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Observed 1m ago

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for OpenAI market share this week
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Above 14.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 14.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 16.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 17.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 86.0% Above 17.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	69.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 69.0% Above 18.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 43.0% Above 18.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0% Above 18.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 19.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 19.9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 21.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 21.2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI lab F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab F · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab F · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
AI lab G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab G · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab G · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anthropic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	—
DeepSeek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗ 0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗ 96.9% Bid 96.4% · Ask 97.3% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗ 55.5% Bid 54.0% · Ask 57.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗ 1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% Google Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meta Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meta Open Polymarket ↗ 1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗	—
OpenAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗ 42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗ 1.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.4% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Qwen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Qwen Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Qwen Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Qwen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗ 1.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.5% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% xAI Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% xAI Open Polymarket ↗ 0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Z.ai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	—

Above 14.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 14.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 16.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 17.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 86.0%

Above 17.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 69.0%

Above 18.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 43.0%

Above 18.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0%

Above 18.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 19.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 19.9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 21.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 21.2%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI lab F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

AI lab G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Anthropic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

DeepSeek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

96.9%

Bid 96.4% · Ask 97.3%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 44.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

55.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 57.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

OpenAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

1.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.4%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Qwen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid — · Ask 1.0%

Qwen

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Qwen

Open Polymarket ↗

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Qwen

Open Polymarket ↗

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

1.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.5%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Z.ai

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets

OpenAI market share this week

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 14.7%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 16.5%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 17.7%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 18.1%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 18.4%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 18.7%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 19.0%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 19.9%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 21.2%

Kalshi

Polymarket

AI lab F

Kalshi

Polymarket

AI lab G

Kalshi

Polymarket

Anthropic

Kalshi

Polymarket

DeepSeek

Kalshi

Polymarket

Google

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meta

Kalshi

Polymarket

MiniMax

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nvidia

Kalshi

Polymarket

OpenAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Qwen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Tencent

Kalshi

Polymarket

xAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Xiaomi

Kalshi

Polymarket

Z.ai

Kalshi

Polymarket