The Prediction Markets

OpenAI market share this week

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$188K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 14.7% 99%

Next is Above 16.5% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 14.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.7%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.7%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.1%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.1%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
48.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 96.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
96.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 18.4%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.4%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
38.9%
Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 42%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
34.3%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 18.7%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.7%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.0%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 19.9%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.2%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.2%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tencent
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
Qwen
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 14.7%
  • Above 16.5%
  • Above 17.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 14.7% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "OpenAI market share this week". Above 14.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 16.5% at 99%. $188K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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