Market comparison

Oregon's 4th District margin of victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oregon's 4th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.1% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.6% Bid 3.1% · Ask 40.1% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 29.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 30.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.9% Bid 17.4% · Ask 32.3% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.0% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.9% Democrat 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hoyle, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 86.0% · Ask 97.2% Hoyle, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 87.0% Hoyle, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 77.0% Hoyle, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 67.0% Hoyle, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 57.0% Hoyle, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 47.0% Hoyle, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0% Hoyle, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0% Hoyle, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hoyle, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 4.2% · Ask 16.0% Hoyle, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.1%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.6%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 40.1%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 29.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 30.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.9%

Bid 17.4% · Ask 32.3%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.0%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.9%

Democrat 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hoyle, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 97.2%

Hoyle, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 87.0%

Hoyle, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

71.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 77.0%

Hoyle, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 67.0%

Hoyle, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 57.0%

Hoyle, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 47.0%

Hoyle, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0%

Hoyle, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0%

Hoyle, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hoyle, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 16.0%

Hoyle, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets