Market comparison

Oscar nominations for Best Director?

2 venues · 57 outcome rows · 26 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

28 outcomes · $127K reported volume

Observed 31s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

70 outcomes · $75K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 31s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 14, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oscar nominations for Best Director?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alejandro González Iñárritu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	13.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0% Alejandro González Iñárritu Open Kalshi ↗	10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0% Alejandro González Iñárritu Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp
Andrew Haigh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Andrew Haigh Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Andrew Haigh Open Polymarket ↗ 6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% Andrew Haigh Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ben Affleck Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Ben Affleck Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Ben Affleck Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Beth de Araujo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Beth de Araujo Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Beth de Araujo Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Christopher Miller Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Christopher Miller Open Kalshi ↗	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Christopher Miller Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Christopher Nolan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	94.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0% Christopher Nolan Open Kalshi ↗	62.5% Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0% Christopher Nolan Open Polymarket ↗ 89.5% Bid 86.9% · Ask 92.0% Christopher Nolan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Cristian Mungiu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 30.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Polymarket ↗ 20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 24.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Polymarket ↗	—
Curry Barker Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Curry Barker Open Kalshi ↗	9.0% Bid 8.4% · Ask 9.7% Curry Barker Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Danny Boyle Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Danny Boyle Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Danny Boyle Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
David Fincher Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% David Fincher Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% David Fincher Open Polymarket ↗ 11.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0% David Fincher Open Polymarket ↗	—
Denis Villeneuve Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	57.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 58.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Kalshi ↗	16.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 53.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Polymarket ↗	—
James Ashcroft Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% James Ashcroft Open Kalshi ↗	2.6% Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.9% James Ashcroft Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
Janus Metz Pedersen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Janus Metz Pedersen Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Janus Metz Pedersen Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Javier Calvo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	87.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 90.0% Javier Calvo Open Kalshi ↗	87.5% Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.0% Javier Calvo Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Jesse Eisenberg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	26.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0% Jesse Eisenberg Open Kalshi ↗	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.6% Jesse Eisenberg Open Polymarket ↗ 21.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 24.0% Jesse Eisenberg Open Polymarket ↗	—
Joel Coen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Joel Coen Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Joel Coen Open Polymarket ↗ 4.5% Bid 1.6% · Ask 7.4% Joel Coen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Martin McDonagh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	75.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 78.0% Martin McDonagh Open Kalshi ↗	1.7% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.9% Martin McDonagh Open Polymarket ↗ 71.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 73.0% Martin McDonagh Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mike Leigh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Mike Leigh Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Mike Leigh Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Mike Leigh Open Polymarket ↗	—
Na Hong-jin Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Na Hong-jin Open Kalshi ↗	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Na Hong-jin Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
Nathan Fielder Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	64.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0% Nathan Fielder Open Kalshi ↗	59.1% Bid 47.7% · Ask 70.5% Nathan Fielder Open Polymarket ↗	4.9 pp
Olivia Wilde Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	53.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0% Olivia Wilde Open Kalshi ↗	1.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.9% Olivia Wilde Open Polymarket ↗ 48.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 53.0% Olivia Wilde Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paweł Pawlikowski Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Paweł Pawlikowski Open Kalshi ↗	9.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Paweł Pawlikowski Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Phil Lord Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Phil Lord Open Kalshi ↗	12.8% Bid 10.1% · Ask 15.6% Phil Lord Open Polymarket ↗	2.8 pp
Ryusuke Hamaguchi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	38.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 38.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Kalshi ↗	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Polymarket ↗ 31.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 33.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Steven Spielberg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Steven Spielberg Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Steven Spielberg Open Polymarket ↗ 3.9% Bid 2.8% · Ask 4.9% Steven Spielberg Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tony Gilroy Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Tony Gilroy Open Kalshi ↗	5.1% Bid 1.9% · Ask 8.4% Tony Gilroy Open Polymarket ↗	2.1 pp
Aaron Sorkin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.8% Aaron Sorkin Open Polymarket ↗ 4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Aaron Sorkin Open Polymarket ↗	—
Alejandro G. Iñárritu Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 4.7% Alejandro G. Iñárritu Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bassam Tariq Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6% Bassam Tariq Open Polymarket ↗	—
Daisy Edgar-Jones DEACTIVATED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0% Daisy Edgar-Jones DEACTIVATED Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
David O. Russell Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.1% David O. Russell Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director N Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director N · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director O Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director O · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director P Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director P · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director Q Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director Q · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director R Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director R · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director S Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director S · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director T · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director U Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director U · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director V Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director V · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director W Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director W · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director X Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director X · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director Y Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director Y · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Director Z Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Director Z · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Greta Gerwig Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Greta Gerwig Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Javier Ambrossi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.5% Bid 80.0% · Ask 85.0% Javier Ambrossi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jordan Firstman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Jordan Firstman Open Polymarket ↗	—
Lance Oppenheim Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 1.9% · Ask 9.1% Lance Oppenheim Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peter Farrelly Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 4.8% Peter Farrelly Open Polymarket ↗ 14.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.0% Peter Farrelly Open Polymarket ↗	—
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.9% Phil Lord or Christopher Miller Open Polymarket ↗	—
xxxxx Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% xxxxx · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0%

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0%

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Oscar nominations for Best Director?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Kalshi

Polymarket

Andrew Haigh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ben Affleck

Kalshi

Polymarket

Beth de Araujo

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christopher Miller

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christopher Nolan

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cristian Mungiu

Kalshi

Polymarket

Curry Barker

Kalshi

Polymarket

Danny Boyle

Kalshi

Polymarket

David Fincher

Kalshi

Polymarket

Denis Villeneuve

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Ashcroft

Kalshi

Polymarket

Janus Metz Pedersen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Javier Calvo

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jesse Eisenberg

Kalshi

Polymarket

Joel Coen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Martin McDonagh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Mike Leigh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Na Hong-jin

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nathan Fielder

Kalshi

Polymarket

Olivia Wilde

Kalshi

Polymarket

Paweł Pawlikowski

Kalshi

Polymarket

Phil Lord

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Kalshi

Polymarket

Steven Spielberg

Kalshi

Polymarket

Tony Gilroy

Kalshi