Market comparison

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

2 venues · 42 outcome rows · 14 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

42 outcomes · $44K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 14, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $33K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
All of a Sudden Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.0% All of a Sudden Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% All of a Sudden Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
Clarissa Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Clarissa Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Clarissa Open Kalshi ↗	3.6 pp
Cry to Heaven Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Cry to Heaven Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Cry to Heaven Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Dune: Part Three Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Dune: Part Three Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Dune: Part Three Open Kalshi ↗	4.9 pp
Ink Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Ink Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Ink Open Kalshi ↗	3.9 pp
Project Hail Mary Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.3% Bid 1.3% · Ask 3.3% Project Hail Mary Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Project Hail Mary Open Kalshi ↗	5.7 pp
Saturn Return Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Saturn Return Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Saturn Return Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
The Black Ball Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	47.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 48.0% The Black Ball Open Polymarket ↗	48.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 48.0% The Black Ball Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
The Invite Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	21.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0% The Invite Open Polymarket ↗	27.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0% The Invite Open Kalshi ↗	6.0 pp
The Odyssey Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% The Odyssey Open Polymarket ↗	20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0% The Odyssey Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
The Social Reckoning Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.4% The Social Reckoning Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% The Social Reckoning Open Kalshi ↗	2.6 pp
The Whisper Man Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% The Whisper Man Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% The Whisper Man Open Kalshi ↗	3.6 pp
Toy Story 5 Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Toy Story 5 Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Toy Story 5 Open Kalshi ↗	3.6 pp
Wildwood Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Wildwood Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Wildwood Open Kalshi ↗	4.9 pp
Movie A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie N Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie N · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie O Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie O · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie P Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie P · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Q Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Q · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie R Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie R · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie S Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie S · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie T · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie U Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie U · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie V Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie V · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie W Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie W · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie X Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie X · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Y Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Y · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Z Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Z · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
The Adventures of Cliff Booth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.9% The Adventures of Cliff Booth Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth Open Kalshi ↗	—

All of a Sudden

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.0%

All of a Sudden

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Polymarket

Kalshi

Known rule differences between venues

All of a Sudden

Polymarket

Kalshi

Clarissa

Polymarket

Kalshi

Cry to Heaven

Polymarket

Kalshi

Dune: Part Three

Polymarket

Kalshi

Ink

Polymarket

Kalshi

Project Hail Mary

Polymarket

Kalshi

Saturn Return

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Black Ball

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Invite

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Odyssey

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Social Reckoning

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Whisper Man

Polymarket

Kalshi

Toy Story 5

Polymarket

Kalshi

Wildwood

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie A

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie B

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie C

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie D

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie E

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie F

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie G

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie H

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie I

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie J

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie K

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie L