The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film

2 venues · 46 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

42 outcomes · $52K reported volume

Observed 48s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 14, 2027

11 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 48s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

All of a Sudden

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 8.0%

All of a Sudden

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

All of a Sudden

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Coward

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Coward

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Coward

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Fatherland

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 6.9%

Fatherland

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Fatherland

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.6 pp

Fjord

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 5.9%

Fjord

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 15.0%

Fjord

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 9.9 pp

Minotaur

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.6%

Minotaur

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Minotaur

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

Possible Love

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 6.6%

Possible Love

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Possible Love

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Bitter Christmas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Bitter Christmas

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Everytime

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Everytime

Open Kalshi ↗

Feito Pipa

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Feito Pipa

Open Kalshi ↗

Hope

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Hope

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

La Bola Negra

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

La Bola Negra

Open Kalshi ↗

Movie A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie N

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie N · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie O

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie O · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie P

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie P · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Q

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Q · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie R

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie R · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie S

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie S · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie T · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie U

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie U · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie V

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie V · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie W

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie W · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie X

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie X · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Y

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Y · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Z

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Z · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Parallel Tales

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Parallel Tales

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Rose

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Rose

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Sheep in the Box

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3%

Sheep in the Box

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Beloved

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

The Beloved

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Black Ball

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

80.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 81.0%

The Black Ball

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Dreamed Adventure

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

The Dreamed Adventure

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Man I Love

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

The Man I Love

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

The Spiral

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

The Spiral

Open Kalshi ↗

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.