Market comparison

Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

2 venues · 45 outcome rows · 16 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

44 outcomes · $44K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

18 outcomes · $38K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
A Place in Hell Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% A Place in Hell Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% A Place in Hell Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
Club Kid Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 0.9% · Ask 11.2% Club Kid Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Club Kid Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Digger Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.8% Digger Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Digger Open Kalshi ↗	4.6 pp
Elsinore Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.0% Bid 4.5% · Ask 9.5% Elsinore Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Elsinore Open Kalshi ↗	5.0 pp
Fatherland Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6% Fatherland Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Fatherland Open Kalshi ↗	1.6 pp
Fjord Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.7% Bid 1.4% · Ask 9.9% Fjord Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Fjord Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
Forgotten Island Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% Forgotten Island Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Forgotten Island Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Josephine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Josephine Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Josephine Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Obsession Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Obsession Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Obsession Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 5.0% Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
The Black Ball Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2% The Black Ball Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% The Black Ball Open Kalshi ↗	1.3 pp
The Debut Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	24.3% Bid 19.4% · Ask 29.1% The Debut Open Polymarket ↗	19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0% The Debut Open Kalshi ↗	5.2 pp
The Drama Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% The Drama Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% The Drama Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
The Invite Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	3.2% Bid 1.4% · Ask 5.0% The Invite Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% The Invite Open Kalshi ↗	1.2 pp
The Odyssey Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.6% Bid 0.3% · Ask 5.0% The Odyssey Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% The Odyssey Open Kalshi ↗	1.7 pp
Wild Horse Nine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	56.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0% Wild Horse Nine Open Polymarket ↗	54.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 58.0% Wild Horse Nine Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Movie A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie N Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie N · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie O Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie O · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie P Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie P · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Q Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Q · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie R Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie R · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie S Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie S · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie T · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie U Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie U · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie V Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie V · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie W Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie W · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie X Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie X · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Y Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Y · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Movie Z Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Movie Z · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
The Adventures of Cliff Booth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% The Adventures of Cliff Booth Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Tie Open Kalshi ↗	—

A Place in Hell

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

A Place in Hell

Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

Polymarket

Kalshi

Known rule differences between venues

A Place in Hell

Polymarket

Kalshi

Club Kid

Polymarket

Kalshi

Digger

Polymarket

Kalshi

Elsinore

Polymarket

Kalshi

Fatherland

Polymarket

Kalshi

Fjord

Polymarket

Kalshi

Forgotten Island

Polymarket

Kalshi

Josephine

Polymarket

Kalshi

Obsession

Polymarket

Kalshi

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Black Ball

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Debut

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Drama

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Invite

Polymarket

Kalshi

The Odyssey

Polymarket

Kalshi

Wild Horse Nine

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie A

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie B

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie C

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie D

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie E

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie F

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie G

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie H

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie I

Polymarket

Kalshi

Movie J