Market comparison

Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

2 venues · 38 outcome rows · 27 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

53 outcomes · $140K reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Observed 2m ago

Observed 34s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Recorded venue end date: Mar 15, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alejandro González Iñárritu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	16.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 17.0% Alejandro González Iñárritu Open Kalshi ↗	11.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 13.0% Alejandro González Iñárritu Open Polymarket ↗	5.0 pp
Andrew Haigh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Andrew Haigh Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Andrew Haigh Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Ben Affleck Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Ben Affleck Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Ben Affleck Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Beth de Araujo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Beth de Araujo Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Beth de Araujo Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Christopher Miller Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% Christopher Miller Open Kalshi ↗	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Christopher Miller Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Christopher Nolan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	94.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0% Christopher Nolan Open Kalshi ↗ 95.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 98.0% Christopher Nolan Open Kalshi ↗ 91.5% Bid 84.0% · Ask 99.0% Christopher Nolan Open Kalshi ↗	89.5% Bid 86.9% · Ask 92.1% Christopher Nolan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Cristian Mungiu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Kalshi ↗ 34.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 40.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Kalshi ↗ 21.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 31.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Kalshi ↗	19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0% Cristian Mungiu Open Polymarket ↗	—
Curry Barker Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Curry Barker Open Kalshi ↗	9.0% Bid 8.4% · Ask 9.7% Curry Barker Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Danny Boyle Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Danny Boyle Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Danny Boyle Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
David Fincher Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% David Fincher Open Kalshi ↗	11.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0% David Fincher Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Denis Villeneuve Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	58.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Kalshi ↗ 79.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 79.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Kalshi ↗ 73.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 88.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Kalshi ↗	47.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 52.0% Denis Villeneuve Open Polymarket ↗	—
James Ashcroft Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% James Ashcroft Open Kalshi ↗	2.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.9% James Ashcroft Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Janus Metz Pedersen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Janus Metz Pedersen Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Janus Metz Pedersen Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Javier Calvo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	87.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 90.0% Javier Calvo Open Kalshi ↗	88.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 91.0% Javier Calvo Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Jesse Eisenberg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	25.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 25.0% Jesse Eisenberg Open Kalshi ↗ 53.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 53.0% Jesse Eisenberg Open Kalshi ↗	15.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% Jesse Eisenberg Open Polymarket ↗	—
Joel Coen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Joel Coen Open Kalshi ↗	4.4% Bid 1.6% · Ask 7.2% Joel Coen Open Polymarket ↗	1.6 pp
Martin McDonagh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	75.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 77.0% Martin McDonagh Open Kalshi ↗ 79.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 89.0% Martin McDonagh Open Kalshi ↗ 71.5% Bid 62.0% · Ask 81.0% Martin McDonagh Open Kalshi ↗	72.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 74.0% Martin McDonagh Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mike Leigh Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Mike Leigh Open Kalshi ↗ 14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% Mike Leigh Open Kalshi ↗	2.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.5% Mike Leigh Open Polymarket ↗	—
Na Hong-jin Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Na Hong-jin Open Kalshi ↗	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Na Hong-jin Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
Nathan Fielder Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	64.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0% Nathan Fielder Open Kalshi ↗	54.8% Bid 47.4% · Ask 62.1% Nathan Fielder Open Polymarket ↗	9.3 pp
Olivia Wilde Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	53.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0% Olivia Wilde Open Kalshi ↗ 79.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 79.0% Olivia Wilde Open Kalshi ↗ 78.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 92.0% Olivia Wilde Open Kalshi ↗	48.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 53.0% Olivia Wilde Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paweł Pawlikowski Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Paweł Pawlikowski Open Kalshi ↗ 10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 30.0% Paweł Pawlikowski Open Kalshi ↗	9.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% Paweł Pawlikowski Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peter Farrelly Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% Peter Farrelly Open Kalshi ↗	11.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 14.0% Peter Farrelly Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp
Phil Lord Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% Phil Lord Open Kalshi ↗	8.8% Bid 6.2% · Ask 11.5% Phil Lord Open Polymarket ↗	1.2 pp
Ryusuke Hamaguchi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	38.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 38.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Kalshi ↗ 47.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 47.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Kalshi ↗ 33.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 43.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Kalshi ↗	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 30.0% Ryusuke Hamaguchi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Steven Spielberg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Steven Spielberg Open Kalshi ↗	3.0% Bid 1.5% · Ask 4.6% Steven Spielberg Open Polymarket ↗	5.0 pp
Tony Gilroy Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Tony Gilroy Open Kalshi ↗ 20.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 30.0% Tony Gilroy Open Kalshi ↗	7.7% Bid 5.3% · Ask 10.1% Tony Gilroy Open Polymarket ↗	—
Aaron Sorkin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Aaron Sorkin Open Polymarket ↗	—
Alejandro G. Iñárritu Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 44.0% Alejandro G. Iñárritu Open Kalshi ↗ 12.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 21.0% Alejandro G. Iñárritu Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daisy Edgar-Jones DEACTIVATED Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0% Daisy Edgar-Jones DEACTIVATED Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Greta Gerwig Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Greta Gerwig Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Gray Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% James Gray Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Javier Ambrossi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.5% Bid 78.0% · Ask 85.0% Javier Ambrossi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 98.0% Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 99.0% Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Phil Lord and Chris Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 45.0% Phil Lord and Chris Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sian Heder Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% Sian Heder Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Simon Stone Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% Simon Stone Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 17.0%

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alejandro González Iñárritu

Kalshi

Polymarket

Andrew Haigh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ben Affleck

Kalshi

Polymarket

Beth de Araujo

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christopher Miller

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christopher Nolan

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cristian Mungiu

Kalshi

Polymarket

Curry Barker

Kalshi

Polymarket

Danny Boyle

Kalshi

Polymarket

David Fincher

Kalshi

Polymarket

Denis Villeneuve

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Ashcroft

Kalshi

Polymarket

Janus Metz Pedersen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Javier Calvo

Kalshi

Polymarket

Jesse Eisenberg

Kalshi

Polymarket

Joel Coen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Martin McDonagh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Mike Leigh

Kalshi

Polymarket

Na Hong-jin

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nathan Fielder

Kalshi

Polymarket

Olivia Wilde

Kalshi

Polymarket

Paweł Pawlikowski

Kalshi

Polymarket

Peter Farrelly

Kalshi

Polymarket

Phil Lord

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Kalshi

Polymarket

Steven Spielberg

Kalshi