The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner

2 venues · 40 outcome rows · 13 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

40 outcomes · $29K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $24K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Clayface

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

7.6%

Bid 5.7% · Ask 9.5%

Clayface

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Clayface

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

Cry to Heaven

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Cry to Heaven

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Cry to Heaven

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

Digger

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Digger

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 18.0%

Digger

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 7.0 pp

Dune: Part Three

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0%

Dune: Part Three

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Dune: Part Three

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.5 pp

I Love Boosters

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 7.8%

I Love Boosters

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

I Love Boosters

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.2 pp

Madden

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 5.1%

Madden

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Madden

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Michael

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Michael

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Michael

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Rose

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

9.6%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 15.7%

Rose

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Rose

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.6 pp

The Odyssey

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 20.0%

The Odyssey

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

The Odyssey

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

The Social Reckoning

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

The Social Reckoning

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

The Social Reckoning

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

UNABOMBER

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2%

UNABOMBER

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

UNABOMBER

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Werwulf

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 35.1%

Werwulf

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0%

Werwulf

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Wicker

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Wicker

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Wicker

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Movie A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie N

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie N · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie O

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie O · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie P

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie P · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Q

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Q · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie R

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie R · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie S

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie S · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie T · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie U

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie U · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie V

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie V · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie W

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie W · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie X

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie X · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Y

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Y · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Movie Z

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Movie Z · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Tie

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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