Market comparison

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

39 outcomes · $104K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $18K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Alex Lawson Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Alex Lawson Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Alex Lawson Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Catherine McKenney Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Catherine McKenney Open Polymarket ↗	0.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Catherine McKenney Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Jeff Leiper Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	14.1% Bid 13.6% · Ask 14.6% Jeff Leiper Open Polymarket ↗	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0% Jeff Leiper Open Kalshi ↗	3.1 pp
Mark Sutcliffe Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	85.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 86.0% Mark Sutcliffe Open Polymarket ↗	86.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 87.0% Mark Sutcliffe Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Neil Saravanamuttoo Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6% Neil Saravanamuttoo Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Neil Saravanamuttoo Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
Person AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AG · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Alex Lawson

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Alex Lawson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Alex Lawson

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Catherine McKenney

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Catherine McKenney

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3%

Catherine McKenney

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Jeff Leiper

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

14.1%

Bid 13.6% · Ask 14.6%

Jeff Leiper

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0%

Jeff Leiper

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.1 pp

Mark Sutcliffe

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

85.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 86.0%

Mark Sutcliffe

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 87.0%

Mark Sutcliffe

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Neil Saravanamuttoo

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6%

Neil Saravanamuttoo

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Neil Saravanamuttoo

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Person AA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Person AG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Person AG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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