Market comparison

Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 4.5% · Ask 4.6% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kelly, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	89.5% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.1% Kelly, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 87.0% Kelly, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 76.0% Kelly, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 63.0% Kelly, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 47.0% Kelly, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 33.0% Kelly, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 9.6% · Ask 21.0% Kelly, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.9% Bid 2.2% · Ask 14.0% Kelly, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.9% Kelly, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.3% Kelly, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kelly, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5% Kelly, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.0% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 24.0% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 29.0% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 32.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.1% Bid 1.6% · Ask 14.6% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.7% Bid 0.7% · Ask 10.6% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.1% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.4% Republican 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.5% · Ask 4.6%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kelly, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

89.5%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.1%

Kelly, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 87.0%

Kelly, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 76.0%

Kelly, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 63.0%

Kelly, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 47.0%

Kelly, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 33.0%

Kelly, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 9.6% · Ask 21.0%

Kelly, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.9%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 14.0%

Kelly, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.9%

Kelly, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.3%

Kelly, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Kelly, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.3%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5%

Kelly, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.0%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 24.0%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 29.0%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 32.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.1%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 14.6%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.7%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 10.6%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.1%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.4%

Republican 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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