Market comparison
Quito Mayoral Election Winner
2 venues · 14 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗41 outcomes · $5K reported volume
Observed 18s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 30, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗8 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 5m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 29, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi text shows no such fallback here (full rules not provided).
- Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, falling back to CNE/TCE official information if ambiguous. Timing and source may differ in disputed results.
- Polymarket lists Galo Almeida and Paúl Desamblanc, which Kalshi does not list; these outcomes are not linked.
- Kalshi rules provided are brief and defer to full rules not shown, so details such as the expiration date, interim mayors and the official source are not visible.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Bernardo Jijón Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
Carla Larrea Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
César Díaz Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Harold Burbano Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.0 pp | ||
Jorge Yunda Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.0 pp | ||
Linda Romero Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 7.0 pp | ||
Pabel Muñoz Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.0 pp | ||
Wilson Merino Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 8.0 pp | ||
Galo Almeida Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Paúl Desamblanc Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Person AA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Person AB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Person AC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Person AD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Bernardo Jijón
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.4 pp
Carla Larrea
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
César Díaz
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.5 pp
Harold Burbano
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.0 pp
Jorge Yunda
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.0 pp
Linda Romero
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 7.0 pp
Pabel Muñoz
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.0 pp
Wilson Merino
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 8.0 pp
Galo Almeida
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Paúl Desamblanc
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Person AA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Person AB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Person AC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Person AD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.