The Prediction Markets

Quito Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
46 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Pabel Muñoz 31.4%

Next is Jorge Yunda at 15.7%. The venues differ most on Wilson Merino (Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 13%), a 9.5-point gap.

Pabel Muñoz 31.4%Jorge Yunda 15.7%Wilson Merino 15.7%Harold Burbano 11.6%Carla Larrea 8.5%5 others 17.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pabel Muñoz
31.4%
Polymarket 38.5%(29.5% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 44%(37.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pabel Muñoz
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pabel Muñoz
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
37.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 51¢.

Jorge Yunda
15.7%
Polymarket 20%(15.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 20%(17% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Yunda
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
15.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Yunda
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Wilson Merino
15.7%
Polymarket 22.5%(17.2% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 13%(11% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wilson Merino
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$829
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson Merino
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Harold Burbano
11.6%
Polymarket 15.5%(11.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 13%(11% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harold Burbano
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.9%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harold Burbano
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Carla Larrea
8.5%
Polymarket 11.5%(8.8% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 9%(7.6% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carla Larrea
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carla Larrea
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

César Díaz
4.6%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.2% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
César Díaz
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
César Díaz
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Linda Romero
4.4%
Polymarket 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda Romero
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Romero
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Paúl Desamblanc
3.4%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paúl Desamblanc
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernardo Jijón
2.7%
Polymarket 3.1%(2.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3.5%(3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernardo Jijón
Last price
3.1%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernardo Jijón
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

Galo Almeida
2%
Polymarket 2.6%(2% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Galo Almeida
Last price
2.6%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 46 min old: Carla Larrea asks 9¢ on Kalshi and bids 10¢ on Polymarket (100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi text shows no such fallback here (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, falling back to CNE/TCE official information if ambiguous. Timing and source may differ in disputed results.
  • Polymarket lists Galo Almeida and Paúl Desamblanc, which Kalshi does not list; these outcomes are not linked.
  • Kalshi rules provided are brief and defer to full rules not shown, so details such as the expiration date, interim mayors and the official source are not visible.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 30, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Electoral Council of Ecuador
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi text shows no such fallback here (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, falling back to CNE/TCE official information if ambiguous. Timing and source may differ in disputed results.
  • Polymarket lists Galo Almeida and Paúl Desamblanc, which Kalshi does not list; these outcomes are not linked.
  • Kalshi rules provided are brief and defer to full rules not shown, so details such as the expiration date, interim mayors and the official source are not visible.
  • Trading closes Nov 30, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pabel Muñoz
  • Jorge Yunda
  • Wilson Merino

Live prices for Pabel Muñoz

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Quito Mayoral Election Winner". Pabel Muñoz leads at 31.4%. Next is Jorge Yunda at 15.7%. $6K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

The 2026 Quito, Ecuador mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Quito as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ecuadorian government, including the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE, https://www.cne.gob.ec) and the Contentious Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Contencioso Electoral, TCE, https://www.tce.gob.ec).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets
Quito Mayoral Election Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets