The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Rybakina vs Kawa

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $86K reported volume

Observed 51s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Rybakina

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 92.0%

Elena Rybakina

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

91.5%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 92.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Katarzyna Kawa

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Katarzyna Kawa

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

86.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 88.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

85.5%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 88.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 79.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set Handicap +/-1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 99.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Game Spread +/-3.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid — · Ask 96.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 93.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 48.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 35.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 32.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 20.0%

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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