Market comparison
South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $77K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $1K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi buckets are 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Cut more than 25bps' (and same for hikes). Polymarket buckets are 25 bps and 50+ bps, with non-standard moves rounded (e.g. 10 bps counts as 25; 37.5 bps counts as 50). A 30 bps move would be 'more than 25' on Kalshi but rounds to 25 bps on Polymarket. Moves of 26-37 bps would settle differently, though SARB normally moves in 25 bps steps.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed, Kalshi resolves 'Maintain' to Yes once the delay passes its expiration date, while Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if it is held before the next scheduled meeting and otherwise resolves No Change. A postponement is unlikely but possible, and the two windows differ.
- Kalshi resolves on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. Polymarket names the SARB MPC statement or release as the source and allows early resolution once it is issued. Both rely on the same SARB announcement.
- Polymarket's rules say a change to the upper bound counts if the rate has bounds, and Kalshi says only the primary policy rate counts. The repo rate is a single rate, so this has no practical effect.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
25 bps decrease Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.8 pp | ||
25 bps increase Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.5 pp | ||
50+ bps decrease Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
50+ bps increase Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.0 pp | ||
No Change Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 10.0 pp |
25 bps decrease
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.8 pp
25 bps increase
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.5 pp
50+ bps decrease
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
50+ bps increase
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.0 pp
No Change
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 10.0 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.