The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

5 outcomes · $77K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 19, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Kalshi buckets are 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Cut more than 25bps' (and same for hikes). Polymarket buckets are 25 bps and 50+ bps, with non-standard moves rounded (e.g. 10 bps counts as 25; 37.5 bps counts as 50). A 30 bps move would be 'more than 25' on Kalshi but rounds to 25 bps on Polymarket. Moves of 26-37 bps would settle differently, though SARB normally moves in 25 bps steps.
  • If the meeting is cancelled or delayed, Kalshi resolves 'Maintain' to Yes once the delay passes its expiration date, while Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if it is held before the next scheduled meeting and otherwise resolves No Change. A postponement is unlikely but possible, and the two windows differ.
  • Kalshi resolves on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. Polymarket names the SARB MPC statement or release as the source and allows early resolution once it is issued. Both rely on the same SARB announcement.
  • Polymarket's rules say a change to the upper bound counts if the rate has bounds, and Kalshi says only the primary policy rate counts. The repo rate is a single rate, so this has no practical effect.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

25 bps decrease

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Cut 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.0%

25 bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

25 bps increase

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 22.0%

Hike 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 30.0%

25 bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

50+ bps decrease

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 2.8%

50+ bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

50+ bps increase

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 11.0%

Hike more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

50+ bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

No Change

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 82.0%

Maintain current rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

73.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 80.0%

No Change

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.0 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.