The Prediction Markets

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$78K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
15 h ago
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What the markets expect

No Change 67.3%

Next is 25 bps increase at 25.6%. The venues differ most on No Change (Polymarket 69%, Kalshi 61%), a 8.0-point gap.

No Change 67.3%25 bps increase 25.6%25 bps decrease 3.7%50+ bps increase 2.1%50+ bps decrease 1.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Change
67.3%
Polymarket 69%(65.7% fair)polled, 15 h agoKalshi 61%(68.5% fair)polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Change
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
65.7%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
61%
Fair, margin removed
68.5%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 15 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

25 bps increase
25.6%
Polymarket 28.5%(27.1% fair)polled, 15 h agoKalshi 22%(24.7% fair)polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.1%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
24.7%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 15 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

25 bps decrease
3.7%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 15 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 15 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

50+ bps increase
2.1%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 15 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 15 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

50+ bps decrease
1.3%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 15 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 15 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 15 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi buckets are 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Cut more than 25bps' (and same for hikes). Polymarket buckets are 25 bps and 50+ bps, with non-standard moves rounded (e.g. 10 bps counts as 25; 37.5 bps counts as 50). A 30 bps move would be 'more than 25' on Kalshi but rounds to 25 bps on Polymarket. Moves of 26-37 bps would settle differently, though SARB normally moves in 25 bps steps.
  • If the meeting is cancelled or delayed, Kalshi resolves 'Maintain' to Yes once the delay passes its expiration date, while Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if it is held before the next scheduled meeting and otherwise resolves No Change. A postponement is unlikely but possible, and the two windows differ.
  • Kalshi resolves on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. Polymarket names the SARB MPC statement or release as the source and allows early resolution once it is issued. Both rely on the same SARB announcement.
  • Polymarket's rules say a change to the upper bound counts if the rate has bounds, and Kalshi says only the primary policy rate counts. The repo rate is a single rate, so this has no practical effect.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: resbank.co.za
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: South African Reserve Bank, Trading Economics
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi buckets are 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Cut more than 25bps' (and same for hikes). Polymarket buckets are 25 bps and 50+ bps, with non-standard moves rounded (e.g. 10 bps counts as 25; 37.5 bps counts as 50). A 30 bps move would be 'more than 25' on Kalshi but rounds to 25 bps on Polymarket. Moves of 26-37 bps would settle differently, though SARB normally moves in 25 bps steps.
  • If the meeting is cancelled or delayed, Kalshi resolves 'Maintain' to Yes once the delay passes its expiration date, while Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if it is held before the next scheduled meeting and otherwise resolves No Change. A postponement is unlikely but possible, and the two windows differ.
  • Kalshi resolves on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. Polymarket names the SARB MPC statement or release as the source and allows early resolution once it is issued. Both rely on the same SARB announcement.
  • Polymarket's rules say a change to the upper bound counts if the rate has bounds, and Kalshi says only the primary policy rate counts. The repo rate is a single rate, so this has no practical effect.
  • Trading closes Nov 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Change
  • 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps decrease

Live prices for No Change

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?". No Change leads at 67.3%. Next is 25 bps increase at 25.6%. $78K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 19, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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