Market comparison

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $92K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 11, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
August 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% August 31, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Before Dec 11, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0% Before Dec 11, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 13, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0% Before Nov 13, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 27, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 74.0% Before Nov 27, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 16, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 16, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Before Oct 30, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
December 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.0% December 31, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—
June 30, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.7% Bid 80.4% · Ask 92.9% June 30, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—

August 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

August 31, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Before Dec 11, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0%

Before Dec 11, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 13, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0%

Before Nov 13, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 27, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 74.0%

Before Nov 27, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 16, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 16, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Before Oct 30, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

December 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.0%

December 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

June 30, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

86.7%

Bid 80.4% · Ask 92.9%

June 30, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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