Market comparison

Texas Senate margin of victory

2 venues · 23 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $1.8M reported volume

Observed 11s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $81K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Texas Senate margin of victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
James Talarico, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0% James Talarico, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 55.0% James Talarico, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% James Talarico, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% James Talarico, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% James Talarico, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% James Talarico, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0% Ken Paxton, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0% Ken Paxton, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Ken Paxton, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.3% Bid 7.3% · Ask 8.4% Ken Paxton, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.7% Bid 5.7% · Ask 6.0% Ken Paxton, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.5% Ken Paxton, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.6% Ken Paxton, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Paxton 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% Paxton 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.8% Bid 6.9% · Ask 8.8% Paxton 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.4% Paxton 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.7% Paxton 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 12%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.5% Paxton 12%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 35.0% Talarico 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% Talarico 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.3% Bid 7.9% · Ask 10.8% Talarico 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 2.8% · Ask 5.3% Talarico 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 12%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.2% Talarico 12%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—

James Talarico, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0%

James Talarico, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

James Talarico, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 55.0%

James Talarico, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

James Talarico, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

James Talarico, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

James Talarico, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0%

James Talarico, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

James Talarico, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

James Talarico, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

James Talarico, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

James Talarico, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0%

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0%

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.3%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 8.4%

Ken Paxton, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.7%

Bid 5.7% · Ask 6.0%

Ken Paxton, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.5%

Ken Paxton, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ken Paxton, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.6%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.6%

Ken Paxton, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Paxton 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0%

Paxton 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Paxton 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 6.9% · Ask 8.8%

Paxton 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Paxton 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.4%

Paxton 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Paxton 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.7%

Paxton 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Paxton 12%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 3.5%

Paxton 12%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Talarico 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 35.0%

Talarico 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Talarico 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Talarico 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Talarico 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.3%

Bid 7.9% · Ask 10.8%

Talarico 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Talarico 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 2.8% · Ask 5.3%

Talarico 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Talarico 12%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.2%

Talarico 12%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets