Market comparison

Texas Senate: margin of victory

2 venues · 40 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $2.2M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $90K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Texas Senate: margin of victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
James Talarico, ≥8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% James Talarico, ≥8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 0-2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.0% James Talarico, 0-2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0% James Talarico, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 2-4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0% James Talarico, 2-4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% James Talarico, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% James Talarico, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 4-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% James Talarico, 4-6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0% James Talarico, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% James Talarico, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 6-8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% James Talarico, 6-8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 19.0% James Talarico, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.7% Bid 7.7% · Ask 8.8% James Talarico, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.2% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.2% James Talarico, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
James Talarico, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% James Talarico, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, ≥8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Ken Paxton, ≥8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 0-2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% Ken Paxton, 0-2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Ken Paxton, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 2-4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Ken Paxton, 2-4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% Ken Paxton, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Ken Paxton, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 4-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Ken Paxton, 4-6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% Ken Paxton, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Ken Paxton, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 6-8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Ken Paxton, 6-8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Ken Paxton, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.4% Bid 8.1% · Ask 9.7% Ken Paxton, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.9% Bid 5.1% · Ask 6.9% Ken Paxton, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.9% Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.9% Ken Paxton, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.7% · Ask 3.5% Ken Paxton, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.2% · Ask 3.7% Ken Paxton, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Paxton 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Paxton 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.2% Bid 8.3% · Ask 10.1% Paxton 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 3.1% Paxton 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 5.1% Paxton 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Paxton 12%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.4% Bid 0.7% · Ask 2.0% Paxton 12%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 35.0% Talarico 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Talarico 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.2% Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.1% Talarico 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.5% Bid 2.2% · Ask 4.9% Talarico 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talarico 12%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.2% Talarico 12%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—

James Talarico, ≥8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

James Talarico, ≥8%

Texas Senate: margin of victory

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, ≥8%

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 0-2%

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 1+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 2-4%

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 2+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 3+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 4-6%

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 4+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 5+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 6-8%

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 6+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 7+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 8+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

James Talarico, 9+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, ≥8%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 0-2%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 2-4%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 2+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 4-6%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 4+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 6-8%

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 6+ pts

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ken Paxton, 7+ pts

Kalshi