The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate: margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$2.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

James Talarico, 1+ pts 61%

Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 48%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

11 of 40 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
James Talarico, 1+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%live, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 1+ pts
Price
61%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$169K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 2+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%live, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 2+ pts
Price
48%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$127K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 3+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%live, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 3+ pts
Price
37%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%live, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Price
34%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$226K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 0-3%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 0-3%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%live, just nowBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
Price
30%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 4+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%live, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 4+ pts
Price
28%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%live, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Price
24%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$358K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 0-3%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 0-3%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 5+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%live, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 5+ pts
Price
20%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$176K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 30 more outcomes
Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%live, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
Price
20%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 3-6%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 3-6%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 0-2%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 0-2%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 6+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 6+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%live, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
Price
16%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$266K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 0-2%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 0-2%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 2-4%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 2-4%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%live, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
Price
14%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 4-6%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 4-6%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 2-4%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 2-4%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 6-9%
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 6-9%
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, ≥8%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, ≥8%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 6-8%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 6-8%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 3-6%
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 3-6%
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico, 8+ pts
8.2%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 8+ pts
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 4-6%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 4-6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 7+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 7+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$211K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico, 9+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico, 9+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 6-8%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 6-8%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, ≥8%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, ≥8%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico 9-12%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 9-12%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paxton 9-12%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 9-12%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 6-9%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 6-9%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton 12%+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton 12%+
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Talarico 12%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico 12%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Talarico, 1+ pts
  • James Talarico, 2+ pts
  • James Talarico, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list James Talarico, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate: margin of victory". James Talarico, 1+ pts leads at 61%. Next is James Talarico, 2+ pts at 48%. $2.3M has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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