Market comparison

Texas's 30th District margin of victory

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 52s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Texas's 30th District margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Democrat 0-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Democrat 30-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.5% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 6.6% Democrat 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% Democrat 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 55-60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.1% Bid 17.9% · Ask 22.3% Democrat 55-60% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 60-65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 30.0% Democrat 60-65% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 65-70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.0% Democrat 65-70% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 70%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.5% · Ask 6.5% Democrat 70%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Haynes, 40+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.9% Bid 87.0% · Ask 98.4% Haynes, 40+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 43+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	87.9% Bid 82.0% · Ask 93.9% Haynes, 43+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 46+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 88.0% Haynes, 46+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 49+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 80.0% Haynes, 49+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 52+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 70.0% Haynes, 52+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 55+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Haynes, 55+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 58+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 48.0% Haynes, 58+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 61+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0% Haynes, 61+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 64+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 27.0% Haynes, 64+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Haynes, 67+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.8% Bid 6.6% · Ask 17.0% Haynes, 67+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.1% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Democrat 0-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8%

Democrat 30-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.5%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 6.6%

Democrat 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0%

Democrat 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 55-60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.1%

Bid 17.9% · Ask 22.3%

Democrat 55-60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 60-65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 30.0%

Democrat 60-65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 65-70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.0%

Democrat 65-70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 70%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 6.5%

Democrat 70%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Haynes, 40+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.9%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 98.4%

Haynes, 40+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 43+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

87.9%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 93.9%

Haynes, 43+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 46+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 88.0%

Haynes, 46+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 49+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 80.0%

Haynes, 49+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 52+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 70.0%

Haynes, 52+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 55+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

54.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Haynes, 55+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 58+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 48.0%

Haynes, 58+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 61+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0%

Haynes, 61+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 64+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 27.0%

Haynes, 64+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Haynes, 67+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.8%

Bid 6.6% · Ask 17.0%

Haynes, 67+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.1%

Republican Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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