Market comparison

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026

2 venues · 31 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $175K reported volume

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $42K reported volume

Observed 53s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on Google's Year in Search Global list for the year.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Bad Bunny Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	38.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0% Bad Bunny Open Kalshi ↗	34.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Bad Bunny Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Donald Trump Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Donald Trump Open Kalshi ↗	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Donald Trump Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Erling Haaland Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	52.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0% Erling Haaland Open Kalshi ↗	46.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 54.0% Erling Haaland Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
Lindsay Clancy Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	72.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 77.0% Lindsay Clancy Open Kalshi ↗	70.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 77.0% Lindsay Clancy Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Nicolas Maduro Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Nicolás Maduro Open Kalshi ↗	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Nicolás Maduro Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Alysa Liu Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 33.0% Alysa Liu Open Polymarket ↗	—
Billie Eilish Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Billie Eilish Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Elon Musk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Elon Musk Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fernando Mendoza Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Fernando Mendoza Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jalen Brunson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Jalen Brunson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joe Biden Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Joe Biden Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Josh Allen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 59.0% Josh Allen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jude Bellingham Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 55.0% Jude Bellingham Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kamala Harris Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Kamala Harris Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lionel Messi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.6% Bid 1.5% · Ask 67.7% Lionel Messi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Matt Damon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.6% Bid 6.1% · Ask 25.0% Matt Damon Open Polymarket ↗	—
Neymar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.7% Neymar Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nick Shirley Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 14.0% Nick Shirley Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
OG Anunoby Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% OG Anunoby Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Robert Downey Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 46.9% Robert Downey Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sabrina Carpenter Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% Sabrina Carpenter Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sam Altman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% Sam Altman Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Savannah Guthrie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0% Savannah Guthrie Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Scarlett Johansson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Scarlett Johansson Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stefon Diggs Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Stefon Diggs Open Polymarket ↗	—
Taylor Swift Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% Taylor Swift Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Timothée Chalamet Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Timothée Chalamet Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Travis Kelce Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0% Travis Kelce Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vladimir Putin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Vladimir Putin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Volodymyr Zelenskyy Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Zohran Mamdani Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% Zohran Mamdani Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Bad Bunny

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 38.0%

Bad Bunny

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

34.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%

Bad Bunny

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Donald Trump

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0%

Donald Trump

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Donald Trump

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Erling Haaland

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 52.0%

Erling Haaland

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

46.5%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 54.0%

Erling Haaland

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Lindsay Clancy

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 77.0%

Lindsay Clancy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 77.0%

Lindsay Clancy

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Nicolas Maduro

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Nicolás Maduro

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Nicolás Maduro

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Alysa Liu

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 33.0%

Alysa Liu

Open Polymarket ↗

Billie Eilish

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Billie Eilish

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Elon Musk

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Elon Musk

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fernando Mendoza

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Fernando Mendoza

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jalen Brunson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Jalen Brunson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Joe Biden

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Joe Biden

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Josh Allen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 59.0%

Josh Allen

Open Polymarket ↗

Jude Bellingham

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 55.0%

Jude Bellingham

Open Polymarket ↗

Kamala Harris

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Kamala Harris

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lionel Messi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.6%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 67.7%

Lionel Messi

Open Polymarket ↗

Matt Damon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.6%

Bid 6.1% · Ask 25.0%

Matt Damon

Open Polymarket ↗

Neymar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.7%

Neymar

Open Polymarket ↗

Nick Shirley

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 14.0%

Nick Shirley

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

OG Anunoby

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0%

OG Anunoby

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Robert Downey Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 46.9%

Robert Downey Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Sabrina Carpenter

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

Sabrina Carpenter

Open Polymarket ↗

Sam Altman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

Sam Altman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Savannah Guthrie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0%

Savannah Guthrie

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Scarlett Johansson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Scarlett Johansson

Open Polymarket ↗

Stefon Diggs

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Stefon Diggs

Open Polymarket ↗

Taylor Swift

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

Taylor Swift

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Timothée Chalamet

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Timothée Chalamet

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Travis Kelce

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0%

Travis Kelce

Open Polymarket ↗

Vladimir Putin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Vladimir Putin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Zohran Mamdani

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

Zohran Mamdani

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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