Market comparison

Toronto Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

2 venues · 22 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Toronto Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Bradford 0-4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 31.0% Bradford 0-4% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bradford 4-8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 22.0% Bradford 4-8% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bradford 8%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.8% Bradford 8%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Candidate A wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Candidate A wins · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Candidate A wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Other wins · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chow 0-4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0% Chow 0-4% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chow 4-8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 54.0% Chow 4-8% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chow 8-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 34.0% Chow 8-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chow 12%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 25.0% Chow 12%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Karen Bass, ≥2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 41.0% Karen Bass, ≥2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Karen Bass, ≥4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 42.0% Karen Bass, ≥4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Karen Bass, ≥6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0% Karen Bass, ≥6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Karen Bass, ≥8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0% Karen Bass, ≥8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Karen Bass, ≥10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 15.0% Karen Bass, ≥10% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	51.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 51.0% Nithya Raman, ≥2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 44.0% Nithya Raman, ≥4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 40.0% Nithya Raman, ≥6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 30.0% Nithya Raman, ≥8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% Nithya Raman, ≥10% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Nithya Raman, ≥12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥14% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% Nithya Raman, ≥14% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nithya Raman, ≥16% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Nithya Raman, ≥16% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Bradford 0-4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 31.0%

Bradford 0-4%

Open Polymarket ↗

Bradford 4-8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 22.0%

Bradford 4-8%

Open Polymarket ↗

Bradford 8%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.8%

Bradford 8%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Candidate A wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Candidate A wins · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Candidate A wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Other wins · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Chow 0-4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0%

Chow 0-4%

Open Polymarket ↗

Chow 4-8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 54.0%

Chow 4-8%

Open Polymarket ↗

Chow 8-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 34.0%

Chow 8-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Chow 12%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 25.0%

Chow 12%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Karen Bass, ≥2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 41.0%

Karen Bass, ≥2%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Karen Bass, ≥4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 42.0%

Karen Bass, ≥4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Karen Bass, ≥6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0%

Karen Bass, ≥6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Karen Bass, ≥8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0%

Karen Bass, ≥8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Karen Bass, ≥10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 15.0%

Karen Bass, ≥10%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 51.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥2%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 44.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 40.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 30.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥10%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥14%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥14%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nithya Raman, ≥16%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Nithya Raman, ≥16%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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