The Prediction Markets

Toronto Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Nithya Raman, ≥2% 51%

Next is Karen Bass, ≥4% at 42%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karen Bass, ≥4%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥4%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karen Bass, ≥2%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥2%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chow 0-4%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chow 0-4%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chow 4-8%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chow 4-8%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Bass, ≥6%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥6%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
Chow 8-12%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chow 8-12%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Bradford 0-4%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bradford 0-4%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Chow 12%+
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chow 12%+
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
Bradford 4-8%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bradford 4-8%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Bass, ≥8%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥8%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Karen Bass, ≥10%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥10%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bradford 8%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bradford 8%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nithya Raman, ≥2%
  • Karen Bass, ≥4%
  • Karen Bass, ≥2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Nithya Raman, ≥2% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Toronto Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?". Nithya Raman, ≥2% leads at 51%. Next is Karen Bass, ≥4% at 42%. $29K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026, to elect the mayor of Toronto, Ontario. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the October 26, 2026 election for Mayor of Toronto. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City of Toronto. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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