Market comparison

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

2 venues · 24 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $17.5M reported volume

Observed 16s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $132K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Above 150 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Above 150 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 160 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0% Above 160 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 170 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 170 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 180 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0% Above 180 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 185 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0% Above 185 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 190 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0% Above 190 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 195 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0% Above 195 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 200 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% Above 200 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 205 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Above 205 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 210 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Above 210 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 220 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 220 Open Kalshi ↗	—
April 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.3% April 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
August 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% August 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
December 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% December 31 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
July 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June 15 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 22 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June 22 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
June 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
March 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% March 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
May 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% May 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
November 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% November 30 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.3% October 31 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 15 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Above 150

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Above 150

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 160

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0%

Above 160

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 170

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

91.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0%

Above 170

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 180

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0%

Above 180

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 185

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0%

Above 185

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 190

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

Above 190

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 195

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%

Above 195

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 200

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Above 200

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 205

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Above 205

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 210

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above 210

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 220

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 220

Open Kalshi ↗

April 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.3%

April 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

August 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

August 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

December 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

December 31

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

July 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

July 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June 15

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June 15 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June 22

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June 22 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

June 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

March 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

March 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

May 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

May 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

November 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

November 30

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

October 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 2.3%

October 31

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 15

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 15 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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