Market comparison

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/18-10/24)

2 venues · 31 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $166K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

38 outcomes · $47K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/18-10/24)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
100-119 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 100-119 Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% 100-119 Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% 100-119 Open Polymarket ↗	—
120-139 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 120-139 Open Kalshi ↗	1.1% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.0% 120-139 Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% 120-139 Open Polymarket ↗	—
140-159 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 140-159 Open Kalshi ↗	1.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.5% 140-159 Open Polymarket ↗ 10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% 140-159 Open Polymarket ↗	—
160-179 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 160-179 Open Kalshi ↗	5.3% Bid 2.7% · Ask 8.0% 160-179 Open Polymarket ↗ 14.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0% 160-179 Open Polymarket ↗	—
180-199 Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 180-199 Open Kalshi ↗	19.5% Bid 18.0% · Ask 21.0% 180-199 Open Polymarket ↗ 15.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% 180-199 Open Polymarket ↗	—
20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% <20 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% <20 Open Polymarket ↗	—
20-39 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 20-39 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 20-39 Open Polymarket ↗	—
40-59 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 40-59 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% 40-59 Open Polymarket ↗	—
60-79 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 60-79 · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.0% 60-79 Open Polymarket ↗	—
80-99 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.1% 80-99 Open Polymarket ↗ 3.1% Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.0% 80-99 Open Polymarket ↗	—
100 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% <100 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
200-219 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% 200-219 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
200+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 78.0% 200+ Open Polymarket ↗ 48.5% Bid 47.0% · Ask 50.0% 200+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
220-240 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% 220-240 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
240 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0% >240 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Allah Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 73.0% Allah Open Polymarket ↗	—
Apple Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Apple · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 25.0% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Brother / Sister Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Brother / Sister · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ceasefire / Uranium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 70.0% Ceasefire / Uranium Open Polymarket ↗	—
Flying Car / Roadster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 50.0% Flying Car / Roadster Open Polymarket ↗	—
Four More Years Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 85.0% Four More Years Open Polymarket ↗	—
Genius / Elon / Musk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Genius / Elon / Musk · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Greenland Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 81.1% · Ask 100.0% Greenland · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jumbotron Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Jumbotron · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Moon / UFO / UAP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Moon / UFO / UAP · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pirate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Pirate · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Six Seven Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 49.0% Six Seven Open Polymarket ↗	—
Strategic / Strategy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 89.0% Strategic / Strategy Open Polymarket ↗	—
Trump Ocean / Trump Strait Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Trump Ocean / Trump Strait · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vanilla / Ice Cream Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 50.0% Vanilla / Ice Cream Open Polymarket ↗	—

100-119

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

100-119

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

100-119

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

100-119

Open Polymarket ↗

120-139

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

120-139

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.0%

120-139

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

120-139

Open Polymarket ↗

140-159

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

140-159

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.5%

140-159

Open Polymarket ↗

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

140-159

Open Polymarket ↗

160-179

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

160-179

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 8.0%

160-179

Open Polymarket ↗

14.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0%

160-179

Open Polymarket ↗

180-199

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

180-199

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

19.5%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 21.0%

180-199

Open Polymarket ↗

15.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

180-199

Open Polymarket ↗

20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

<20 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

<20

Open Polymarket ↗

20-39

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

20-39 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

20-39

Open Polymarket ↗

40-59

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

40-59 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

40-59

Open Polymarket ↗

60-79

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

60-79 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Bid — · Ask 1.0%

60-79

Open Polymarket ↗

80-99

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.1%

80-99

Open Polymarket ↗

3.1%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.0%

80-99

Open Polymarket ↗

100

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

<100

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

200-219

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

200-219

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

200+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

74.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 78.0%

200+

Open Polymarket ↗

48.5%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 50.0%

200+

Open Polymarket ↗

220-240

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

220-240

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

240

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0%

>240

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Allah

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 73.0%

Allah

Open Polymarket ↗

Apple

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Apple · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 25.0%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Brother / Sister

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Brother / Sister · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Ceasefire / Uranium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 70.0%

Ceasefire / Uranium

Open Polymarket ↗

Flying Car / Roadster

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 50.0%

Flying Car / Roadster

Open Polymarket ↗

Four More Years

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 85.0%

Four More Years

Open Polymarket ↗

Genius / Elon / Musk

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Genius / Elon / Musk · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Greenland

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 81.1% · Ask 100.0%

Greenland · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Jumbotron

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Jumbotron · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Moon / UFO / UAP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Moon / UFO / UAP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Pirate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Pirate · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Six Seven

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 49.0%

Six Seven

Open Polymarket ↗

Strategic / Strategy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 89.0%

Strategic / Strategy

Open Polymarket ↗

Trump Ocean / Trump Strait

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Trump Ocean / Trump Strait · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Vanilla / Ice Cream

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 50.0%

Vanilla / Ice Cream

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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