Market comparison

UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $59K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 41s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Aaron Pico Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	57.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0% Aaron Pico Open Kalshi ↗	56.5% Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0% Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 50.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 50.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 58.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 48.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Keita in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 50.0% Keita in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Keita in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 50.0% Keita in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Keita in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Keita in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Keita to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 38.0% Keita to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Losene Keita Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 44.0% Losene Keita Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.5% Bid 54.0% · Ask 89.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 50.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pico in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 50.0% Pico in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pico in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 50.0% Pico in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pico in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Pico in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pico to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 48.0% Pico to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Aaron Pico

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

57.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Aaron Pico

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

40.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 50.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

40.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 50.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 58.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 48.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Keita in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 50.0%

Keita in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Keita in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 50.0%

Keita in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Keita in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Keita in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Keita to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 38.0%

Keita to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Losene Keita

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 44.0%

Losene Keita

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

71.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 89.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 50.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Pico in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 50.0%

Pico in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Pico in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 50.0%

Pico in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Pico in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Pico in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Pico to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 48.0%

Pico to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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