The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)

Starts in 40 hKickoff
Traded
$85K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 71.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 59%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Pico
56.8%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 57%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Pico
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Fight won by KO/TKO?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Losene Keita
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Losene Keita
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 2.5 Rounds
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Fight to Go the Distance?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Pico in Round 1
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pico in Round 1
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Keita in Round 1
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keita in Round 1
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Pico in Round 2
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pico in Round 2
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Keita in Round 2
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keita in Round 2
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Keita in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keita in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Pico in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pico in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Aaron Pico

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 71.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 59%. $85K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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