Market comparison

UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $47K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 49s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Abusupiyan Magomedov Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	55.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 55.0% Abusupiyan Magomedov Open Kalshi ↗	53.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0% Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Cameron Rowston Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	46.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0% Cameron Rowston Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 30.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 53.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 37.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 44.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 32.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Magomedov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0% Magomedov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Magomedov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0% Magomedov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Magomedov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Magomedov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Magomedov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 24.0% Magomedov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 89.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.5% Bid 60.0% · Ask 63.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rowston in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 18.0% Rowston in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rowston in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0% Rowston in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rowston in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0% Rowston in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rowston to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 25.0% Rowston to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Abusupiyan Magomedov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 55.0%

Abusupiyan Magomedov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Cameron Rowston

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

Cameron Rowston

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 30.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 53.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 37.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 44.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 32.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Magomedov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0%

Magomedov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Magomedov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0%

Magomedov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Magomedov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Magomedov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 24.0%

Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

84.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 89.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

61.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 63.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Rowston in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 18.0%

Rowston in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Rowston in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 17.0%

Rowston in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Rowston in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 13.0%

Rowston in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Rowston to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 25.0%

Rowston to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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