The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)

Starts in 24 hKickoff
Traded
$54K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 84%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61.5%. The venues differ most on Abusupiyan Magomedov (Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abusupiyan Magomedov
54.6%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abusupiyan Magomedov
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 1 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ends before Round 3?
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Rowston
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Rowston
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Ends before Round 2?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston to win by KO/TKO?
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov in Round 1
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 1
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 2
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 2
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 1
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 1
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov in Round 2
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 2
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 3
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 3
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov in Round 3
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 3
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 1 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Abusupiyan Magomedov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 84%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61.5%. $54K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Abus Magomedov" if Abus Magomedov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cam Rowston at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Cam Rowston" if Cam Rowston is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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