Market comparison

UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Azamat Murzakanov Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	67.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 67.0% Azamat Murzakanov Open Kalshi ↗	65.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0% Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dominick Reyes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Dominick Reyes Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 69.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 74.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Murzakanov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0% Murzakanov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Murzakanov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	40.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 70.0% Murzakanov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Murzakanov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Murzakanov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 54.0% Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.5% Bid 54.0% · Ask 81.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 48.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 46.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Reyes in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 18.0% Reyes in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Reyes in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 14.0% Reyes in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Reyes in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Reyes in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Reyes to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 26.0% Reyes to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Azamat Murzakanov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 67.0%

Azamat Murzakanov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

65.5%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 66.0%

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Dominick Reyes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%

Dominick Reyes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

67.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 69.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 74.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Murzakanov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0%

Murzakanov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Murzakanov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

40.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 70.0%

Murzakanov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Murzakanov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Murzakanov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 54.0%

Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

67.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 81.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 48.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 46.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Reyes in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 18.0%

Reyes in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Reyes in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 14.0%

Reyes in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Reyes in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Reyes in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Reyes to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 26.0%

Reyes to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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