The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

Starts in 29 hKickoff
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Fight won by KO/TKO? 69.5%

Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 67.5%. The venues differ most on Azamat Murzakanov (Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 67%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Azamat Murzakanov
66.2%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Azamat Murzakanov
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 66¢.

Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Murzakanov in Round 1
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Murzakanov in Round 1
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominick Reyes
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominick Reyes
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 2.5 Rounds
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Decision or Draw
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Reyes to win by KO/TKO?
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reyes to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Murzakanov in Round 2
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Murzakanov in Round 2
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Reyes in Round 1
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reyes in Round 1
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Murzakanov in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Murzakanov in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Reyes in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reyes in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Reyes in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reyes in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fight won by KO/TKO?
  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • Ends before Round 3?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Fight won by KO/TKO? for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)". Fight won by KO/TKO? leads at 69.5%. Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 67.5%. $31K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Azamat Murzakanov" if Azamat Murzakanov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Dominick Reyes at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Dominick Reyes" if Dominick Reyes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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