Market comparison

UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $87K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Colby Thicknesse Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Colby Thicknesse Open Kalshi ↗	16.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Asaf Chopurov Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Asaf Chopurov Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Chopurov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 33.0% Chopurov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 25.0% Chopurov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0% Chopurov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 38.0% Chopurov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 39.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 32.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 39.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 42.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 35.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 62.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% Thicknesse in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Thicknesse in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Thicknesse in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Colby Thicknesse

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Colby Thicknesse

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Asaf Chopurov

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Asaf Chopurov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Chopurov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 33.0%

Chopurov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 25.0%

Chopurov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0%

Chopurov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 38.0%

Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 39.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 32.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 39.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 42.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 35.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

83.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 62.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0%

Thicknesse in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Thicknesse in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Thicknesse in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0%

Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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