The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$88K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Asaf Chopurov 84%

Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 84%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Asaf Chopurov
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Asaf Chopurov
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov in Round 1
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 1
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 1
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 1
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Fight to Go the Distance?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov in Round 2
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 2
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Colby Thicknesse
16.9%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 15s agoKalshi 17%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colby Thicknesse
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Chopurov in Round 3
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 3
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 2
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 2
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 3
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 3
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Asaf Chopurov
  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Asaf Chopurov for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)". Asaf Chopurov leads at 84%. Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 84%. $88K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Colby Thicknesse" if Colby Thicknesse is officially declared the winner of the fight against Asaf Chopurov at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Asaf Chopurov" if Asaf Chopurov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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