Market comparison

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $47K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $23K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Grant Dawson Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	52.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0% Grant Dawson Open Kalshi ↗	51.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0% Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Aliev in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 12.0% Aliev in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Aliev in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Aliev in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Aliev in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Aliev in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Aliev to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 20.0% Aliev to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dawson in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0% Dawson in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dawson in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0% Dawson in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dawson in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% Dawson in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dawson to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Dawson to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 65.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 29.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.5% Bid 56.0% · Ask 67.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 27.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nurullo Aliev Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% Nurullo Aliev Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 95.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 84.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 68.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—

Grant Dawson

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0%

Grant Dawson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

51.5%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0%

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Aliev in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 12.0%

Aliev in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Aliev in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Aliev in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Aliev in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Aliev in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Aliev to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 20.0%

Aliev to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Dawson in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Dawson in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Dawson in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Dawson in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Dawson in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

Dawson in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Dawson to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Dawson to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

61.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 65.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 29.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

61.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 67.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 27.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 22.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Nurullo Aliev

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0%

Nurullo Aliev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

91.0%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 95.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

79.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 84.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

67.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 68.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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