The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Starts in 27 hKickoff
Traded
$65K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 91%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 79%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
79%
Polymarket 79%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Grant Dawson
51.7%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 52%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Grant Dawson
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 51¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 52¢.

Nurullo Aliev
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nurullo Aliev
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ends before Round 3?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Fight won by submission?
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Aliev to win by KO/TKO?
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Aliev in Round 1
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 1
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 1
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 1
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 2
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 2
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson in Round 3
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson in Round 3
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Dawson to win by KO/TKO?
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dawson to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Aliev in Round 2
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 2
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Aliev in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aliev in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 91%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 79%. $65K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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