Market comparison
UFC 333: Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Early Prelims)
2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $10K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗19 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Noah Gugnon Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Decision or Draw Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ends before Round 2? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ends before Round 3? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Fight to Go the Distance? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Fight won by decision? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Fight won by submission? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gugnon in Round 1 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gugnon in Round 2 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gugnon in Round 3 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Kody Steele Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Steele in Round 1 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Steele in Round 2 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Steele in Round 3 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Steele to win by KO/TKO? Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Noah Gugnon
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Decision or Draw
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 1
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 2
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 3
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Kody Steele
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Steele in Round 1
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Steele in Round 2
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Steele in Round 3
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.