The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Early Prelims)

Starts in 40 hKickoff
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 62.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 60.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kody Steele
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kody Steele
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ends before Round 3?
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gugnon in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gugnon in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gugnon in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gugnon in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Steele in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steele in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Steele in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steele in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Steele in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steele in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steele to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Noah Gugnon
42.3%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 42%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Gugnon
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

O/U 2.5 Rounds
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Kody Steele

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Early Prelims)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 62.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 60.5%. $11K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Noah Gugnon" if Noah Gugnon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kody Steele at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Kody Steele" if Kody Steele is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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