Market comparison

US-Iran nuclear deal?

2 venues · 27 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $7.1M reported volume

Observed 54s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $2.3M reported volume

Observed 54s ago

Observed 5m ago

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for US-Iran nuclear deal?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium Open Polymarket ↗	—
5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Before April Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before April · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 9.9% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 20, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0% Before Jan 20, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before July Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before July · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before June Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before June · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before May · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dilution of Iran's Uranium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Dilution of Iran's Uranium Open Polymarket ↗	—
Enriched Uranium Surrender Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Enriched Uranium Surrender Open Polymarket ↗	—
February 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% February 4 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Iran Reconstruction Funding Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Iran Reconstruction Funding Open Polymarket ↗	—
July 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July 31 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
June 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% June 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
September 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 30 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.6% Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.8% U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? Open Polymarket ↗	—
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.5% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

Open Polymarket ↗

5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

Open Polymarket ↗

Before April

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before April · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Aug 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Feb 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0%

Before Feb 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 9.9%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 20, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

36.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before July

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before July · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before June

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before June · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Mar 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before May

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before May · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Sep 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

Open Polymarket ↗

Enriched Uranium Surrender

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Enriched Uranium Surrender

Open Polymarket ↗

February 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

February 4 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Iran Reconstruction Funding

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

Open Polymarket ↗

July 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

July 31 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

June 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

June 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

September 30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 30 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.6%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.8%

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?

Open Polymarket ↗

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

Open Polymarket ↗

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.5%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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