Market comparison

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

2 venues · 25 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $235K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 58s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 29, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $60K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 28, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
0.5–1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% 0.5–1.0% Open Polymarket ↗ 0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% 0.5–1.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% <0.5% Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8% <0.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.0–1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% 1.0–1.5% Open Polymarket ↗ 2.9% Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.0% 1.0–1.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.5–2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.8% 1.5–2.0% Open Polymarket ↗ 4.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.5% 1.5–2.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.0–2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 61.0% 2.0–2.5% Open Polymarket ↗ 8.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% 2.0–2.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.5–3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% 2.5–3.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.2% Bid 38.2% · Ask 48.2% >2.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
2.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.1% ≤2.9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.2% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.3% 3.0% Open Polymarket ↗ 66.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 68.0% ≥3.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.2% Bid 58.7% · Ask 59.6% 3.1% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.5% Bid 12.6% · Ask 16.4% 3.2% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.9% · Ask 5.0% 3.3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.4% Bid 0.9% · Ask 3.8% 3.4% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.7% 3.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.5% · Ask 5.9% 3.6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
3.7%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% 3.7%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above 0.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 0.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 91.0% Above 0.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 82.0% Above 1.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0% Above 1.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0% Above 2.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 45.0% Above 2.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0% Above 3.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0% Above 3.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Above 4.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—

0.5–1.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

0.5–1.0%

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Polymarket

Kalshi

0.5–1.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

0.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

1.0–1.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

1.5–2.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

2.0–2.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

2.5–3.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

2.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

2.9%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.1%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.2%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.3%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.4%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.6%

Polymarket

Kalshi

3.7%+

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 0.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 0.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 1.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 2.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 3.5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Above 4.0%

Polymarket

Kalshi